One Question That Exposes Your Company Strategy

Current world affairs triggered business strategists into action. Regardless of industry, company size, or geography, corporate boards are piecing together the picture of the future. Predicting, forecasting, and foresighting are hard, expensive activities with no guarantees. However, the quality of the questions raised during the exercise is what drives insights in the right direction.

For those in this fortune-teller process, there’s a single question to evaluate whether strategists got the changes right. It’s especially valuable for those who hire expensive external consultants for the task. Ask them to describe which of the five geopolitical worlds applies to your economic model.

Actually, if you have to ask that, it’s already not a good sign. It means these strategists are still operating from the SPOD (stable, predictable, ordinary, definite) paradigm. This was true for a few countries until recently, but no longer valid for the economic dynamics of transnational businesses. It also means you are likely not thinking about the changes the organization needs in the future, including technology, leadership profile, metrics, and routines.

Before any attempt to define the future direction, investments, divestments, and hopes for business continuation, ask strategists to define the economic world in which your industry operates. SPOD is an old paradigm. Your business is likely navigating the VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous), BANI (brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible), RUPT (rapid, unpredictable, paradoxical, turbulent), or TUNA (transitory, unstable, novel, ambiguous) worlds.

Be aware that these models are not about geographies, but about economics and value chains. This means that a given country may represent VUCA, BANI, RUPT, or TUNA in different economic contexts depending on which value chain you operate in. If you cannot answer that, you are likely preparing for a non-existent SPOD world. You end up with the same strategy and revised tactics.